Appendix B-2: Pathways to Desistance Data Analysis Report

Pathways to Desistance Data Analysis Report

by Carol Schubert and Ed Mulvey
December 5, 2012

PDF Copy of Appendix B2 Pathways to Desistance Data Analysis Report (pdf)

Overall Approach

  • Reviewed background characteristics and subsequent offending patterns for three groups of youth in Pathways study; i.e., those enrolled at 14, 16 and 17 years of age.
  • Number of youth in each group:
    • 14 yr olds:  160
    • 16 yr olds:  668
    • 17 yr olds:  480

Patterns Self-Reported Offending after Study Enrollment through 7 Years

Information and details about the graphic chart, please contact Heidi Mueller, Executive Director, Juvenile Justice Commission, Office of Community and Positive Youth Development, Illinois Department of Human Services, 401 S. Clinton, 4th Floor, Chicago, IL 60607, email: heidi.mueller@illinois.gov.
Persisters Late Onset Desisters Mid stable Low stable
Age 14 11.1 11.1 17 35.6 25.2
Age 16 9.6 13.8 23 30.7 22.8
Age 17 12.5 9.7 23 27.5 27.2

Figure 1. 7-yr Offending Patterns for Individuals who entered the study in Age Groups of Interest

7-yr Offending Patterns of Individuals, Age Groups of Interest

Information and details about the graphic chart, please contact Heidi Mueller, Executive Director, Juvenile Justice Commission, Office of Community and Positive Youth Development, Illinois Department of Human Services, 401 S. Clinton, 4th Floor, Chicago, IL 60607, email: heidi.mueller@illinois.gov.

Differences on baseline risk/need indicators

  • Looked between group differences (ANOVA) for the 7 risk/need factors by age at baseline.
  • Youth enrolled at age 17 are significantly worse off on the following risk need factors:
    • Antisocial peers
    • School performance
    • Substance Use
  • Youth enrolled at age 16 are significantly worse off on:
    • Antisocial attitudes
  • There are no significant differences by age for:
    • Parent criminality
    • Mental health
    • Antisocial history

Illustration of Differences on baseline risk/need indicators

Antisocial Attitudes

Antisocial Attitudes Age Group 14, 16, and 17

Information and details about the graphic chart, please contact Heidi Mueller, Executive Director, Juvenile Justice Commission, Office of Community and Positive Youth Development, Illinois Department of Human Services, 401 S. Clinton, 4th Floor, Chicago, IL 60607, email: heidi.mueller@illinois.gov.

Association with Antisocial Peers

Association with Antisocial Peers Ages 14, 16, and 17

Information and details about the graphic chart, please contact Heidi Mueller, Executive Director, Juvenile Justice Commission, Office of Community and Positive Youth Development, Illinois Department of Human Services, 401 S. Clinton, 4th Floor, Chicago, IL 60607, email: heidi.mueller@illinois.gov.

School Problems

Illustration of Differences for School Problems

Information and details about the graphic chart, please contact Heidi Mueller, Executive Director, Juvenile Justice Commission, Office of Community and Positive Youth Development, Illinois Department of Human Services, 401 S. Clinton, 4th Floor, Chicago, IL 60607, email: heidi.mueller@illinois.gov.

Substance Use

Illustration of Differences for Substance Use

Information and details about the graphic chart, please contact Heidi Mueller, Executive Director, Juvenile Justice Commission, Office of Community and Positive Youth Development, Illinois Department of Human Services, 401 S. Clinton, 4th Floor, Chicago, IL 60607, email: heidi.mueller@illinois.gov.

Raising the Age of Juvenile Court Jurisdiction

The future of 17-year-olds in Illinois' justice system.

Illinois Juvenile Justice Commission