Projections to Reach Functional Zero Homelessness in Illinois 12/9/2022

Illinois Interagency Task Force on Homelessness Meeting

Friday, December 9, 2022

AGENDA

• What was our goal?
• How did we determine statewide need?
• What does the data tell us that the statewide need is?
• What would it take to address the
• How much can federal resources do?
• Discussion

What was our goal?

To conduct a data analysis and create a data model that could project the aggregate amount of housing resources necessary for the state to reach functional zero homelessness.

Functional Zero

Functional Zero:

Community Solutions pioneered this approach and term to understanding the end of homelessness for a population: "Functional zero is a milestone, which must be sustained, that indicates a community has measurably solved homelessness for a population. When it's achieved, homelessness is rare and brief for that population."*

Data Definition of Functional Zero

Rare: Inflow = Outflow

Brief: Total Unmet Need less than or equal to 50% of Outflow

Non-recurring: less than 5% of permanent exits return = estimated

Equitable: Local communities make commitment to equity indicators

How did we determine statewide need?

Outline of data analysis process

DATA COLLECTION

DATA ENTRY AND ORGANIZATION

DRAFT or STARTER MODEL

INTEGRATING LOCAL INPUT AND EXPERTISE

STATEWIDE BASELINE MODEL

Data Collection

Data Collection

Main Data Source

• Stella P
  • A HUD data tool that shows data on total people served in all CoC projects throughout the year and how people moved through the homeless system

Supplemental Data Sources

• System Performance Measures
  • Adjusting "total people served" by Street Outreach Exits
• Housing Inventory Count
  • Current capacity
  • Adjusting "total people served" by HMIS Bed coverage
  • Resource Inventory
• 2022 Point in Time Count
  • Check on total served

Data Entry and Organization

DATA ENTRY AND  ORGANIZATION

1. CoC level data 
2. State level data
3. Draft Model

Draft/Starter Model

Integrating Local INPUT and EXPERTISE

Statewide baseline Model

What does the data tell us that the statewide need is?

State Data Overview

People and Households in any project in Stella

• 44,063 people in 27,733 households
• Household size = 1.59 people per household

Inflow vs. Long-term vs. First time Homeless

• Inflow: 13,533 = 65%
• Long term: 7,404 = 35%
• First time: 12,233 = 58% of Inflow + Long-term homeless

Returns to homelessness after 24 month and after any exit from any project type

• 26.3%
• Adults Only = 29%
• Transition Age Youth = 27%
• Adults with Children = 19%
• Child Only = 8%

Inflow & Outflow (Households)

*Column "Total Estimated Need 2023" includes Total Unmet Need + 2 years of Unmet Need

**Row "Total 2023" data includes Stella-P data along with estimated Non HMIS covered populations

What would it take to address the need?

Homeless System Main Project Types

• ES = Emergency Shelter
• TH = Transitional Housing

(2-year maximum participant enrollment; move-out required at program exit)

• RRH = Rapid Rehousing

(2-year maximum participant enrollment; rental assistance for private market unit; lease is between participant and landlord so participant can maintain housing while taking over lease payments at exit)

• PSH = Permanent Supportive Housing

(housing subsidy without time limitation; supportive services available; can be project-based or tenant-based)

Baseline Model: Current Capacity vs Projected Need

LOTH = "Length of time Homeless"

Baseline (Resources): Current Capacity v. Projected Need (units) 

(Table Version)

Baseline Model Over Ten Years

(Additional Units per year)

Baseline Model Over Five Years

(Additional Units per year)

Contextualizing The Projections

These projections will serve an immediate purpose

They can be improved, refined, expanded over time

Further iterations could include:

• Expanded data on other populations outside the homeless system
• Creation of local structures that help inform the statewide model with specific CoCs
• Creation of local structures that are centered on the goal of functional zero
• Resource development and distribution strategies informed by local strengths, needs and system equity

How much can federal resources do?

New Federal Resources for CoCs Across Illinois 2019 & 2021

*Estimate based on IDHA average per unit cost of $440k

Discussion

Discussion Questions

1. Where can your agency have the biggest impact?
2. Where does your agency need the most support?
3. Where are the biggest opportunities for partnership and additional capacity?